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美元指数跌落90大关 重点关注本周CPI数据
美元指数跌落90大关 重点关注本周CPI数据
美元指数又来到了90大关的下方。周一,美元对竞对货币小幅走低,此前美元连续两周上涨,因投资者解除了一些美元空头押注,但贸易战忧虑依然存在这令美元整体承压。截至发稿,美元指数报89.91。

外汇交易员指出,通常情况下,非农就业报告公布后的一周会比较平静,但由于本月的第一个周五(即就业报告公布日)相对较晚,这意味着我们很快就会进入美国消费者价格指数周,而不是介于非农报告和通胀数据之间的平静一周。

而对于通胀,美国中长期消费者通胀预期的调查仍保持稳定。

根据纽约联储对消费者预期的调查,3年期通胀预期的中值仍处于稳定区间,2月为2.88%。密歇根大学(University of Michigan) 3月份的数据显示,3月份消费者的通胀预期从2月份的2.7%上升至2.8%,但他们的五年预期仍保持在2.5%。总的来说,这些调查结果与联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC) 3月份的判断一致,即基于调查的长期通胀预期指标几乎没有变化。

三菱东京日联银行分析师指出,预计本周公布的CPI和核心CPI数据均将重归2.0%上方,如果表现好于预期,则将在短期内有效提振美元,因这会加强市场对美联储加快加息的期望。

该行补充道:“目前市场更加倾向于美联储在年内完成三次加息,但中美贸易战风险依然存在,以及金融状况正在收紧,这些均增加了市场的担忧情绪,从而加大了美元的下行风险。”

不过本月核心美国消费者价格指数的共识没有多大意义,因为预测已经连续29个月维持月率上升0.2%,这个月也没有什么不同。在这段时间里,16个月确实达到了这个水平,但从2017年开始,14个月中只有5个符合这一预测。在9个不符预期中,有7个低于预期。

交易员指出,除美国通胀外,我们还有最新的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要,美国的财报季开始(周五有三家大银行公布财报),还有Facebook的扎克伯格(Zuckerberg)周三在参议院的一个小组作证。这可能会影响科技业,也会影响到其他市场。

美国其他地方,美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)本周将发布最新的美国预算赤字预测,这可能会决定未来几个月美国国债的潜在供应量。
本官网相关信息不适用于来自美国、新加坡、香港、朝鲜及伊朗居民或本公司客户,利用上述地区的相关信息进行交易,或由此国家或司法管辖区的任何人使用,如果使用将违反当地法律和法规。
风险提示:以保证金交易外汇/差价合约和期权具有高风险,可能并不适合所有投资者。高杠杆可能对您不利,也可能对您有利。在决定交易任何此类杠杆产品之前,您应该仔细考虑您的投资标的、经验水平和风险偏好。 您可能会损失部分或全部初始投资,因此您不应投资无法承受亏损的资金。 您应该了解与保证金交易相关的所有风险,如果您有任何疑问,请向独立财务顾问寻求建议。更多风险详情,敬请参阅 FOMOSO 的 风险声明 及商业条款
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