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提前两年！美国预算赤字2020年将超1万亿美元
名词解释市场动态财经日历VPS
提前两年！美国预算赤字2020年将超1万亿美元
  根据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）的数据，美国的预算赤字到2020年将超过1万亿美元，这比原先预计的要快两年，因总统唐纳德·特朗普签署的减税和增加支出对促进长期经济增长没有多大作用。

美国国会无党派议员周一（4月9日）在一份报告中表示，截至今年9月份，财政年度的支出将超过收入达8040亿美元，超过去年6月时预计的5630亿美元的预算赤字。在2019财年，预算赤字更是将达到9810亿美元，而之前的预测为6890亿美元。

根据CBO去年6月的报告，美国的预算缺口在2022财年只是设定超过1万亿美元的水平。

赤字正在增长，因特朗普政府今年实施税收改革将导致联邦收入下降，并且国会批准约3000亿美元的支出增加。CBO的新预估可能会加剧投资者的担忧，因为它们会衡量美国和中国之间的关税威胁可能对世界经济造成的潜在影响。

*新的预测*

该报告对税收立法的影响进行了新的预测——称在未来11年内，当考虑宏观经济影响和增加偿债成本时，赤字将增加近1.9万亿美元。去年12月，国会税务联合委员会曾表示，税收方案将在10年内令联邦收入减少近1.1万亿美元。

“今天的CBO报告证实，在过去几个月里，我们的财政前景遭受了重大损失。”预算监督机构彼得森基金会负责人迈克尔·彼得森在一份声明中表示，“这是首次考虑到最近的税收和支出立法的预测，很明显，立法者已经在不可持续的轨道上增加了更多的债务。”

*两年前*

CBO预测，到2018年美国实际国内生产总值（GDP）将增长3.3％，而根据第四季度的同比推算，该数据在2019年降至2.4％，到2020年降至1.8％。今年6月，CBO预测今年经济将增长2％。特朗普2019年的财政预算案认为，减税将推动经济今年增长3.1％，并保持经济增长在3％以上一直到2024年。

CBO称，减税和支出立法“提供财政刺激措施，在短期内提高实际GDP超过潜在GDP。”“从长远来看，所有这些影响以及由新法引起的更大的联邦预算赤字都会对利率和价格造成上行压力。”

*就业与利率*

CBO预测联邦基金利率将在2018年第四季度达到2.4％，到明年年底将达到3.4％，然后在2021年达到4％的峰值。它认为2019年度平均失业率将从今年的3.8%下降到3.3%的水平。

“在2020-2026年期间，许多因素会抑制经济增长：利率和价格上涨，联邦支出增长放缓以及个人所得税税率降低到期。”CBO称。

根据CBO的数据，公众持有的美国债务到2022年将超过20万亿美元，高于今年的15.7万亿美元。

*甚至更大*

即使在最新的财政措施出台之前，美国预算缺口预计将随着美国老龄人口对医疗保健和退休计划的施加压力而增加。

CBO预估代表了如果允许现行法律继续生效，该项目将发生哪些变化。CBO认为国会定期提出的年度拨款预算上限仍然有效。因此，赤字可能比CBO预测的还要大。

国会预算办公室主任基思·霍尔本周将在众议院和参议院预算委员会为报告作证。

国会并不打算在十一月中期选举前制定任何重大削减赤字的立法。虽然众议院将起草预算决议，但参议院表示不会采取任何行动。如果没有快速的预算和解，保守派共和党人所寻求的福利削减是不可能实现的，因为民主党可以利用参议院来阻挠该项措施。
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